由南科大风险院Didier Sornette、Arnaud Mignan等特邀编辑的EPJ特刊《全球地震预报系统》发布
2021 / 01 / 31
为了预测何时可能发生地震，地震学家通常用统计学方法来监测地震活动丛集的时变特性。然而，这种方法一般不能预测大尺度地震发生的时间和震级，这常常导致当前早期预警系统出现疏忽的危险情况。几十年来，地震学领域以外的研究提出，这些重大的、具有潜在破坏性的地震活动与一系列非地震现象有关——这些非地震现象可以在大地震发生前几天甚至几周内观察到。而目前为止，这一观点还没有在科学界被广泛认可。本期特刊中，欧洲物理杂志EPJ特刊提出了全球地震预报系统（GEFS）：第一个跨多学科研究人员的合作倡议，并致力于研究一系列不同的非地震前兆。
通过促进这些思想与地震学现有理论的结合，全球地震预报系统（GEFS）可大大改善地震早期预警系统，并有可能在未来灾害发生时拯救生命、保护重要的基础设施。该倡议建立在几十年来物理化学和固体物理学实验的基础上，通过一个基于原子级缺陷的微妙机制来合理解释各种地震前兆。该理论认为，随着地震活动前构造板块中应力的累积，地壳中会产生电子-空穴对（electron-hole pairs）。电子被限制在受力的岩石上，但带正电的空穴却流向周围受力较小的岩石，从而产生可远距离传播的电流。这些电流反过来又会引发广泛的次生效应，包括不寻常的低度到超低度电磁辐射、地球表面光谱上不同的热红外辐射，以及大气层和电离层的变化。
本特刊记录了世界各地研究人员的研究发现，他们利用地面和空间观测将这些非地震模式与随后发生的大地震相联系。这项工作为持续监测全球地震前兆的关键迹象这一努力提供了强有力的依据，虽然这些前兆往往是间歇性且微弱的。如果全球地震预报系统的目标得以实现，那么该系统可能成为不同学界广泛合作的开端。各学界秉持着一个共同目标，即提高我们预报未来大地震的能力。
Didier Sornette院士作为共同作者参与撰写了
在本期发表的以下共8篇论文
D. Sornette, G. Ouillon, A. Mignan and F. Freund
Preface to the Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) special issue:
Towards using non-seismic precursors for the prediction of large earthquakes,
Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 1-5 (2021)
(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000242-4)
F. Freund, G. Ouillon, J. Scoville and D. Sornette
Earthquake precursors in the light of peroxy defects theory: critical review of systematic observations,
Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes,
Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 7-46 (2021)
(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000243-x)
Hong-Jia Chen, Chien-Chih Chen, Guy Ouillon and Didier Sornette
Coupled mechano-electrokinetic Burridge-Knopoff model of fault sliding events and transient geoelectric signals,
Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes,
Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 67-84 (2021)
(DOI: 10.1140/epjst/e2020-000245-x)
Ying Zhang, Qingyan Meng, Guy Ouillon, Linlin Zhang, Die Hu, Weiyu Ma and Didier Sornette
Long-Term Statistical Evidence Proving the Correspondence between TIR Anomalies and Earthquakes is Still Absent,
Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes,
Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 133-150 (2021)
(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000248-4)
Hong-Jia Chen, Chien-Chih Chen, Guy Ouillon, Didier Sornette
A paradigm for developing earthquake probability forecasts based on geoelectric data,
Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes,
Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 381-407 (2021)
(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000258-9)
Shyam Nandan, Yavor Kamer, Guy Ouillon, Stefan Hiemer, and Didier Sornette
Global models for short-term earthquake forecasting and predictive skill assessment,
Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes,
Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 425-449 (2021)
(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000259-3)
Yavor Kamer, Shyam Nandan, Guy Ouillon, Stefan Hiemer and Didier Sornette
Democratizing earthquake predictability research: introducing the RichterX platform,
Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes,
Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 451-471 (2021)
(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000260-2)
A. Mignan, G. Ouillon, D. Sornette and F. Freund
Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS): The Challenges Ahead,
Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes,
Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 473-490 (2021)
(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000261-8)