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Preface to the Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue was published on EPJ Special Topics
2021 / 01 / 31
Recently, Preface to the Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes, jointly edited by Professor Friedemann Freund from NASA Ames Research Center, Associate Professor Arnaud Mignan from Risks-X and ESS, SUSTech, Dr. Guy Ouillon from University Paris 13 and Chair Professor Didier Sornette from Risks-X, SUSTech, was published on EPJ Special Topics
Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes
Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230 (1) January (2021)
To predict when earthquakes are likely to occur, seismologists often use statistics to monitor how clusters of seismic activity evolve over time. However, this approach often fails to anticipate the time and magnitude of large-scale earthquakes, leading to dangerous oversights in current early-warning systems. For decades, studies outside the seismology field have proposed that these major, potentially devastating seismic events are connected to a range of non-seismic phenomena – which can be observed days or even weeks before these large earthquakes occur. So far, however, this idea hasn’t caught on in the wider scientific community. In this special issue, EPJ Special Topics proposes the Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS): the first collaborative initiative between multi-disciplinary researchers devoted to studying a diverse array of non-seismic earthquake precursors.
By promoting the integration of these ideas with existing theories in seismology, GEFS could lead to significant improvements of earthquake early warning systems; potentially saving lives and protecting critical infrastructures when future disasters hit. The initiative is rationalised via a subtle atomic-level defect-based mechanism for explaining a variety of earthquake precursors, building on decades of laboratory experiments in physical chemistry and solid-state physics. The theory suggests that, as stresses build up in tectonic plates prior to seismic activity, electron-hole pairs are generated in the Earth’s crust. The electrons are confined to the stressed rocks, but the positively charged holes flow out into the surrounding, less stressed rocks, producing electrical currents that can travel over large distances. These currents in turn can trigger wide-ranging secondary effects ranging from unusual low to ultralow electromagnetic radiation, to emissions of spectroscopically distinct thermal infrared from the Earth’s surface, to changes in the atmosphere and ionosphere.
This special issue documents the findings of researchers around the world, who have used both ground- and space-based observations to link these non-seismic patterns to the occurrence of subsequent large earthquakes. The work creates a strong rationale for global efforts to continually monitor the Earth for key signs of these precursors, which are often intermittent and weak. If its aims are realized, GEFS could be the first step towards a widespread collaboration between different scientific communities, each with the shared goal of improving our ability to forecast large earthquakes in the future.
A proposed collaborative initiative involving researchers in a wide range of fields could lead to better predictions of large-scale seismic events
8 papers in this special volume in which Didier Sonette personally contributed as a co-author
D. Sornette, G. Ouillon, A. Mignan and F. Freund. Preface to the Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) special issue: Towards using non-seismic precursors for the prediction of large earthquakes, Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 1-5 (2021)(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000242-4)
F. Freund, G. Ouillon, J. Scoville and D. Sornette. Earthquake precursors in the light of peroxy defects theory: critical review of systematic observations, Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes, Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 7-46 (2021)
(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000243-x)
Hong-Jia Chen, Chien-Chih Chen, Guy Ouillon and Didier Sornette
Coupled mechano-electrokinetic Burridge-Knopoff model of fault sliding events and transient geoelectric signals, Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes, Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 67-84 (2021)
(DOI: 10.1140/epjst/e2020-000245-x)
Ying Zhang, Qingyan Meng, Guy Ouillon, Linlin Zhang, Die Hu, Weiyu Ma and Didier Sornette. Long-Term Statistical Evidence Proving the Correspondence between TIR Anomalies and Earthquakes is Still Absent, Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes, Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 133-150 (2021)
(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000248-4)
Hong-Jia Chen, Chien-Chih Chen, Guy Ouillon, Didier Sornette. A paradigm for developing earthquake probability forecasts based on geoelectric data, Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes, Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 381-407 (2021)
(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000258-9)
Shyam Nandan, Yavor Kamer, Guy Ouillon, Stefan Hiemer, and Didier Sornette
Global models for short-term earthquake forecasting and predictive skill assessment, Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes, Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 425-449 (2021)
(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000259-3)
Yavor Kamer, Shyam Nandan, Guy Ouillon, Stefan Hiemer and Didier Sornette. Democratizing earthquake predictability research: introducing the RichterX platform, Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes, Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 451-471 (2021)
(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000260-2)
A. Mignan, G. Ouillon, D. Sornette and F. Freund. Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS): The Challenges Ahead, Global Earthquake Forecasting System (GEFS) Special Issue: Towards Using Non-seismic Precursors for the Prediction of Large Earthquakes, Eur. Phys. J. Special Topics 230, 473-490 (2021)
(https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2020-000261-8)